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Canadian home sales ease in September
Ottawa, ON, October 15, 2015 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity eased in September 2015 from the month before.
Highlights:
- National home sales declined by 2.1% from August to September.
- Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity edged up 0.7% compared to September 2014.
- The number of newly listed homes retreated 2.1% from August to September.
- The Canadian housing market remains balanced overall.
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 6.9% year-over-year in September.
- The national average sale price rose 6.1% on a year-over-year basis in September; excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 2.9%.
The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations fell by 2.1 per cent in September 2015 compared to August.
Sales were down in more than half of all local markets in September, led by declines in Greater Vancouver, Calgary and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
“Sales are off the peak reached earlier this year but are still running strong, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario,” said CREA President Pauline Aunger. “That said, sales strength varies considerably among markets and price segments across Canada. All real estate is local, and
REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”
“Although national sales activity was not as strong in September as it was earlier this year, a lack of supply in some parts of the country is likely keeping a lid on transactions,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The GTA and Greater Vancouver made sizeable contributions to the monthly decline in national sales activity. They also rank among the tightest urban housing markets in the country due to a shortage of inventory and supply of land on which to build, which is why prices there continue to grow strongly.”
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in September 2015 eclipsed activity one year ago by 0.7 per cent. Sales in September 2015 reached the second-highest on record for the month, standing just 0.3 per cent (130 transactions) below the record set in September 2009.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were up from year-ago levels in a little over half of all local markets, led by the Lower Mainland region of British Columbia. Calgary posted the largest year-over-year decline in activity compared to the record set last year.
In line with sales activity, the number of newly listed homes also declined by 2.1 per cent in September compared to August led by the Lower Mainland, Victoria, the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington and Montreal.
The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 56.8 per cent in September. With sales and new listings having posted monthly declines of equal magnitude in September, the sales-to-new listings ratio held steady compared to August. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively.
The ratio was within this range in half of local housing markets in September. Of the remainder, the majority breached the 60 per cent threshold in September and consisted almost entirely of markets in British Columbia and those in and around the GTA.
The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
There were 5.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2015, up slightly from the 5.6 months recorded in each of the previous four months.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 6.90 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, accelerating from 6.43 per cent in August, 5.90 per cent in July, and 5.43 in June. The recent acceleration in year-over-year growth follows about a year-and-a-half of gains that held steady within a range of between five and five-and-a-half per cent.
Year-over-year price growth picked up in September for all Benchmark home types tracked by the index, particularly for apartment units.
Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+9.07 per cent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+6.48 per cent), townhouse/row units (+4.40 per cent) and apartment units (+4.22 per cent).
Year-over-year price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+13.72 per cent) and Greater Toronto (+10.46 per cent) continue to post by far the biggest year-over-year price increases. Meanwhile, price gains in the Fraser Valley have accelerated to almost nine per cent.
By comparison, Victoria and Vancouver Island prices logged year-over-year gains between five and six per cent in September.
For the second consecutive month, prices in Calgary were flat on a year-over-year basis. Prices in Saskatoon and Ottawa also ran roughly even with year-ago levels.
Elsewhere, home prices were up from September 2014 levels by about one-and-a-half per cent in Greater Montreal and by about two-and-a-half per cent in Greater Moncton. Prices fell by four per cent in Regina, extending year-over-year price declines there that began in 2013.
The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in September 2015 was $433,649, up 6.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $334,705 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 2.9 per cent.
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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.
For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca
Canadian home sales hold steady in November
Ottawa, ON, December 15, 2014 - According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity was unchanged on a month-over-month basis in November 2014.
Highlights:
- National home sales were unchanged from October to November.
- Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 2.7% above November 2013 levels.
- The number of newly listed homes edged down 0.4% from October to November.
- The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.2% year-over-year in November.
- The national average sale price rose 5.7% on a year-over-year basis in November.
The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate
Boards and Associations was unchanged in November 2014 compared to October. As a result, activity remains much improved compared to the quiet start to the year.
November sales strengthened in half of all local housing markets, with monthly increases in Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton-Burlington, Barrie, and Windsor-Essex tempered by a monthly decline in the Greater Toronto Area.
“The Canadian housing market remains a story about how sales and prices are still running strong in some areas while others are seeing subdued levels of activity with slower price gains or modest price declines,” said CREA President Beth Crosbie. “All real estate is local and your REALTOR® remains your best source for information about how the housing market is shaping up where you currently live or might like to in the future.”
“The effect of lower oil prices on Canada’s housing markets is something of a wildcard at the moment,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “It’s not clear how far oil prices may drop or for how long they’ll stay down. How that plays out may affect the outlook for interest rates, job growth, consumer confidence, and sentiment about making major purchases.”
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in November stood 2.7 per cent above levels reported in the same month last year. November sales were up from year-ago levels in about half all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Greater Toronto.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity for the year-to-date in November was five per cent above levels in the first 11 months of 2013. It was also slightly above (+2.4 per cent) the 10-year average for year-to-date sales.
The number of newly listed homes edged down 0.4 per cent in November compared to October. Led by Greater Toronto, new supply was down in just over half of all local markets.
The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 56 per cent in November. While this is marginally tighter compared to the previous three months in which it averaged 55.7 per cent, the broader trend for the ratio indicates that it has remained balanced and largely stable for the past four months.
A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is usually consistent with a balanced housing market, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively.
The ratio was within this range in almost 60 per cent of all local markets in November. About 60 per cent of the remaining markets posted ratios above this range, almost all of which are located in British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario.
The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
There were 5.8 months of inventory nationally at the end of November 2014. As with the sales-to-new listings ratio, the number of months of inventory has been stable for the past four months and remains well within balanced market territory.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.19 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November. Price gains have held steady between five and five-and-a-half per cent since the beginning of the year.
Year-over-year price growth decelerated among all property types tracked by the index in November compared to October.
Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.79 per cent), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+5.63 per cent). Price growth was comparatively more modest for one-storey single family homes (+4.20 per cent) and apartment units (+3.18 per cent).
Price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months,
Calgary (+8.53 per cent), Greater Toronto (+7.73 per cent), and Greater Vancouver
(+5.69 per cent) continue to post the biggest year-over-year increases. By contrast, prices in Regina declined by 3.36 per cent.
In other markets from West to East, prices were up between 1.6 and 2.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Vancouver Island, by less than one per cent in Saskatoon and Ottawa, flat in Greater Montreal, and down by less than one per cent in Greater Moncton (Table 1).
The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2014 was $413,649, up 5.7 per cent from the same month last year.
The national average home price continues to be raised considerably by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $331,743 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to five per cent.
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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.
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