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The Bank of Canada announced on December 2^nd, 2015 that it was keeping its trend-setting target overnight lending rate at 0.5 per cent.

Helped by interest rate cuts earlier this year, the Canadian economy rebounded in the third quarter of 2015 from two previous consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. However, the Bank expects “[economic] growth to moderate in the fourth quarter of 2015 before moving to a rate above potential in 2016.”

The Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report published in October pegged the rate of potential Canadian economic growth in 2016 somewhere in the range 1.4% to 2.2% and forecast economic growth above that starting in the second quarter of 2016. Time will tell whether the Bank will need to further downgrade the outlook for economic growth, as it has repeatedly in recent years.

Economic growth and inflation outlooks are crucial to the timing for when the Bank will begin to raise interest rates.

In recent months, Canadian economic growth has gained strength in non-resource sectors, which are getting a boost from a weaker Canada-U.S. currency exchange rate. By contrast, resource and their supporting industries continue to face major headwinds, with oil-producing regions contending with weak oil prices, lower investment and job layoffs.

Headline inflation continues to trend near the bottom of the Bank’s target range of between 1 and 3 per cent due to persistently low oil prices. Core inflation (which strips out the most volatile price components of overall inflation) remains on target. Below the surface, the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar is being offset by a growing disinflationary gap between actual and potential economic growth.

Based on the Bank’s current forecast for economic growth and inflation, financial markets are currently betting that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold throughout 2016.

As of December 2^nd, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement on October 21^st, and down 0.15 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on January 20^th 2016, with the next update to the Monetary Policy Report released on the same date.

(CREA 2/12/2015)

Ottawa, ON, November 16, 2015 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales increased in October 2015 from the previous month.

Highlights:

• National home sales rose by 1.8% from September to October.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was little changed (+0.1%) compared to October 2014.
• The number of newly listed homes was up 0.9% from September to October.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced overall.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 6.7% year-over-year in October.
• The national average sale price rose 8.3% on a year-over-year basis in October; excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 2.5%.

The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose by 1.8 percent in October 2015 compared to September. As a result, national activity stood near the peak recorded earlier this year and reached the second-highest monthly level in almost six years.

There was an even split between the number of markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where sales declined. The national increase was driven by monthly sales gains in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia together with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and surrounding areas, led by the York Region, Central Toronto, and Hamilton-Burlington.

“The continuation of low interest rates is supporting home sales activity,” said CREA President Pauline Aunger. “Even so, the strength of sales activity varies by location and price segment across Canada. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“October extended resale housing market trends of recent months,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Single detached homes continue to be in short supply while demand for them remains strong in a number of active and populous housing markets in British Columbia and Ontario. Meanwhile, an ample supply of condo apartments remains. The balance between supply and demand is generally tighter for single detached homes than it is for condo apartments and that’s unlikely to change any time soon. For that reason, price gains for single detached homes should continue to outstrip those for condo apartment units for some time.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales in October 2015 were little changed (+0.1 percent) from activity one year ago, when it reached the second-highest level on record for the month.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were up from year-ago levels in half of all local markets, led by the Lower Mainland region of British Columbia, the GTA and Montreal. Gains there were largely offset by a drop in activity in the Calgary region, where sales were down considerably from the record set last year for transactions during the month of October.

The number of newly listed homes edged up 0.9 percent in October compared to September, led by the Lower Mainland, Victoria and the GTA. These gains were balanced by a pullback in new supply in the Okanagan Region, Edmonton and Ottawa.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 57.9 percent in October, which indicates that the balance between supply and demand tightened. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was within this range in slightly fewer than half of all local housing markets in October. Of the remainder, an almost equal number breached the 60 percent threshold in October, nearly all of which are located in British Columbia and Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October 2015, down from the 5.7 months recorded in September. As with the sales-to-new listings ratio, the October reading for months of inventory points to the tightest housing market conditions at the national level in almost six years.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 6.70 percent on a year-over-year basis in October, marking a slightly more modest increase compared to the increase in September (6.90 percent).

Year-over-year price growth slowed in in October for one and two-storey single family homes, but picked up for townhouse/row and apartment units.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+8.67 percent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+6.02 percent), townhouse/row units (+4.88 percent) and apartment units (+4.39 percent).

Year-over-year price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+15.33 percent) and Greater Toronto (+10.33 percent) continue to post double-digit year-over-year price increases. Meanwhile, price gains in the Fraser Valley have accelerated to 10.51 percent.

By comparison, Victoria and Vancouver Island prices saw year-over-year gains that ranged between five percent and seven percent in October.

Prices in Calgary edged down by about one percent on a year-over-year basis in October and slipped lower by about one-and-a-half percent in Saskatoon. Prices also fell by a little over four percent in Regina, extending year-over-year price declines there that began in 2013.

Prices in Ottawa remained stable compared to those one year ago and were up from October 2014 levels in Greater Montreal (+1.42 percent) and Greater Moncton (+3.84 percent). (Table 1)

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in October 2015 was $454,976, up 8.3 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $339,059 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 2.5 percent.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Highlights:

•       National home sales edged back by 0.4% from June to July.

•       Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 3.4% above July 2014 levels.

•       The number of newly listed homes edged up 0.2 per cent from June to July.

•       The Canadian housing market remains balanced overall.

•       The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.9% year-over-year in July.

•       The national average sale price rose 8.9% on a year-over-year basis in July; excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 4.1%.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations declined by 0.4 per cent in July 2015 compared to June. While this marks the second consecutive monthly decline in activity, sales activity in May, June and July reached their highest monthly levels in more than five years. 

July sales were down from the previous month in about half of all local markets, led by declines in Hamilton-Burlington and in the Durham Region of the greater Toronto Area (GTA). The monthly decline in sales for these two markets represents a pullback from record levels in June and likely reflects an insufficient supply of listings. By contrast, sales in Newfoundland and Labrador were up most on a month-over-month basis, marking a rebound from a quiet month of June for the province.

“National sales activity remains solid, fuelled by strength in British Columbia and the Greater Toronto Area, where listings are in short supply or trending that way,” said CREA President Pauline Aunger. “That said, markets elsewhere across Canada are largely well balanced and in some cases have an ample supply of listings. As always, all real estate is local and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“It’s fair to say that the strength of national sales is still a story about two cities, but it’s equally about how trends there are spreading out in their respective provinces,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Trends in British Columbia and Ontario have a big influence on the national figures, since they account for about 60 per cent of national housing activity. As a result, the national picture reflects how demand is running high for the short supply of single family homes in and around the GTA while the balance between supply and demand is tightening in B.C.’s Lower Mainland. These remain the only places in Canada where home prices are growing strongly.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in July 2015 came in 3.4 per cent ahead of the same month last year, and marked the second highest July sales figure on record after 2009. Activity stood 12.6 per cent above the 10-year average for July.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were up from year-ago levels in just over half of all local markets, led by the Lower Mainland region of British Columbia and the GTA. While Calgary continued to post the largest year-over-year declines in sales compared to last year’s record levels, activity there is nonetheless running roughly in line with five and 10-year averages for sales during the month of July.

The number of newly listed homes was little changed (+0.2 per cent) in July compared to June, marking the fourth consecutive month in which new listings have held steady. New supply was up in a little more than half of all local markets, led by rebounds in Calgary and Edmonton which offset a small step down in the GTA.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 56.8 per cent in July, down slightly from 57.1 per cent in June. The measure has closely tracked the trend for sales this year as new supply has remained stable.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.

The ratio was within this range in about half of local housing markets in July. About one-third of all local markets breached the 60 per cent threshold in July, comprised mostly of markets in British Columbia together with those in and around the Greater Toronto Area.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2015, unchanged from the previous two months and a three-year low for the measure. The national balance between supply and demand has tightened since the beginning of the year as rising sales have drawn down on overall supply.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.90 per cent on a year-over-year basis in July, accelerating from the 5.43 per cent year-over-year gain in June. Gains over the past year and a half had been holding steady within a range of about five and five and a half per cent. 

Year-over-year price growth picked up in July for all Benchmark home types tracked by the index. Two-storey single family homes continued to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+8.16 per cent), with comparatively more modest increases for one-storey single family homes

(+4.88 per cent), townhouse/row units (+4.49 per cent) and apartment units (+2.96 per cent).

Year-over-year price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+11.23 per cent) and Greater Toronto (+9.39 per cent) continue to post by far the biggest year-over-year price increases. By comparison, year-over-year price growth in the Fraser Valley accelerated to about six per cent, while Victoria and Vancouver Island prices continued to log year-over-year gains of about four per cent in July.

Price gains in Calgary continued to slow, with a year-over-year increase of just 0.14 per cent in July. This was the smallest gain in nearly four years, with July’s reading down about 0.7% from the peak reached in November 2014 and up by about an equal percentage compared to the recent low point reached in April 2015. Prices continued running roughly even with year-ago levels in Saskatoon.

Elsewhere, home prices were up from July 2014 levels by just under two per cent in Greater Montreal and by just under one per cent in Ottawa. By comparison, prices fell by about three and a half per cent in Regina and by about one and a half per cent in Greater Moncton.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2015 was $437,699, up 8.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

The national average home price continues to be upwardly distorted by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $341,438 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 4.1 per cent.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

The Bank of Canada announced on July 15^th, 2015 that it was lowering its trend-setting target overnight lending rate from 0.75 per cent to 0.50 per cent. The move follows another cut of the same size in January.

The Bank indicated that it expects the Canadian economy shrank modestly in the first half of the year but has begun to rebound and will gain steam. While its decision to lower interest rates is aimed at supporting business investment and exports, revisions to the Bank’s economic forecast also indicate that lower interest rates will also boost consumer spending and housing activity.

The Bank of Canada also pared back its inflation outlook due to a number of factors which are unlikely to reverse themselves in the near future. That means short-term interest rates are almost certain to remain on hold this year and over 2016.

Recall that when the Bank of Canada previously cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in January, Canada’s largest private banks lowered their lending rates by less than that. The same will likely hold true this time around. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada’s most recent interest rate cut is unlikely to cause consumer borrowing and mortgage lending to catch fire, especially given the currently high level of household debt.

The bottom line has shifted from “lower for longer” to “even lower for even longer”. All other things being equal, this is even more supportive for the housing market.

As of July 15^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement on May 27^th, and down 0.15 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on September 9^th, 2015 and the next update to the Bank of Canada’s economic forecast will be on October 21^st 2015.

(CREA 07/15/2015)

The Bank of Canada announced on May 27^th, 2015 that it was keeping its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 0.75 per cent.

Economic growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank expected, but it “expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter.” It still believes that exports and business investment will pick up and that the Canadian economy will grow by just under 2 per cent this year.

The Bank thinks the economic fallout from low oil prices will be neatly limited to the first quarter. If it proves to be longer lasting, the Bank may downgrade its economic outlook again and further delay raising interest rates. Financial markets currently expect the Bank to start raising interest rates in the second half of 2016.

The Bank sets interest rates so that inflation stays around 2% (plus or minus 1%). Economic growth plays an important role in the Bank’s assessment of the outlook for inflation. Its announcement said, “seeing through the various temporary factors, the Bank estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, consistent with persistent slack in the economy.” This makes clear the Bank has little reason to raise its trend-setting Bank rate anytime soon.

The Bank’s announcement ended by saying “a number of complex adjustments are under way.” and suggested “their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.” In the meantime, interest rates will remain supportive for Canadian home sales and prices.

As of May 27^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement on April 15th and down 0.15 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on July 15th, 2015 and will be accompanied by an update to the Monetary Policy report.

(CREA 05/27/2015)

The Bank of Canada announced on April 15^th, 2015 it was keeping its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 0.75 per cent.

While official economic growth statistics for the first quarter of 2015 won’t be available until the end of May, the Bank estimates that Canada’s economy was stuck in neutral. Governor Poloz had already telegraphed as much in an interview with the Financial Times and it should come as no surprise given the impact of the drop in oil prices this year.

In its interest rate announcement, the Bank made it clear that it thinks the worst of the damage to the Canadian economy from lower oil prices is behind us. It expects economic activity to bounce back in the second and third quarters even more strongly than previously predicted due mainly to an anticipated increase in non-energy exports.

The Bank’s forecast is perhaps optimistic regarding near term economic prospects given, since there is scant evidence that non-energy exports are in fact ramping up. Moreover, its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) which accompanied the announcement acknowledged that “the full impact of the decline in oil prices has yet to show up in employment statistics.”

The rebalanced forecast allows the Bank to maintain its view that inflation will return to its two per cent target by the end of 2016. At this point, that means the goalposts for the first interest rate hike have not moved. Most Bay Street economists expect the Bank to keep interest rates on hold until late 2016.

That said, the Bank identified greater than anticipated economic fallout from oil prices as the number one risk to its forecast. If damage to the Canadian economy from lower oil prices worsen or drag on for longer than anticipated, it may be forced to again downgrade its next economic forecast and perhaps trim interest rates in July.

As of April 15^th, 2015, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.64 per cent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous Bank rate announcement on March 4^th, and down 0.35 percentage points from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on May 27^th, 2015. The next update to the Monetary Policy Report will be on July 15^th, 2015.

(CREA 04/15/2015)

The further decline in oil prices since CREA’s last forecast has shaken consumer confidence in the Prairies, pushing potential homebuyers to the sidelines and prompting more homeowners to put their home on the market. This has led to a rapid shift in market balance in Alberta, and to a lesser extent, Saskatchewan. Annual sales in these provinces are expected to come in well below elevated levels posted last year, with small declines in average residential prices in 2015.

Additionally, the Canadian dollar has weakened further against the U.S. dollar, mortgage rates have declined and the U.S. economy has strengthened since CREA’s last forecast, which taken together are expected to benefit economic and job growth in other provinces. Accordingly, CREA has upwardly revised its forecast for sales activity for much of the rest of the country.

The balance between supply and demand continues to tighten in British Columbia and Ontario. These are the only two provinces where tight supply relative to demand is expected to result in average price gains that surpass inflation this year.

By contrast, average prices in Quebec and the Atlantic region are expected to remain relatively stable, as sales deplete elevated levels of supply.

On balance, the forecast for national sales has been revised lower, reflecting downward revisions to the outlook for sales in Alberta. National sales are now projected to reach 475,700 units in 2015, representing an annual decline of 1.1 per cent. This would place annual activity slightly above but still broadly in line with its 10-year average (Chart A).

British Columbia is projected to post the largest annual increase in activity in 2015 (+4.9 per cent) followed closely by Nova Scotia (+3.7 per cent), Quebec (+2.5 per cent), New Brunswick (+2.5 per cent), Ontario (+1.9 per cent), and Prince Edward Island (+1.4 per cent). These numbers represent upward revisions to CREA’s previous forecast.

Alberta is expected to post the largest annual decline in sales this year (-19.2 per cent), though the trend for activity is expected to begin recovering from a weak start to the year as consumer confidence recovers. Sales are also forecast to decline on an annual basis in Saskatchewan (-11.2 per cent), and Manitoba (-1.3 per cent).

The national average home price is now forecast to rise by two per cent to $416,200 in 2015. Only British Columbia (+3.4 per cent) and Ontario (+2.5 per cent) are forecast to see gains in excess of the national increase.

Prices are projected to remain largely stable elsewhere, with increases or decreases of around one per cent or less this year. The exception is Alberta, where average price is forecast to fall by 3.4 per cent, reflecting a pullback in sales for luxury properties compared to homes in more affordable price segments.

In 2016, national sales activity is forecast to reach 482,700 units, representing an annual increase of 1.7 per cent. Much of the annual increase reflects an anticipated recovery for sales activity in Alberta and Saskatchewan in line with expected economic improvement in those provinces.

Strengthening economic prospects are expected to result in improving sales activity in other provinces where sales have struggled, keeping prices more affordable amid ample supply. Meanwhile, anticipated mortgage rate increases are expected to keep activity in check in markets where homes are already less affordable and prices have continued rising.

The national average price is forecast to rise by a further 1.9 per cent to $424,100 in 2016. Given an ongoing shortage of supply for single family homes in and around the Greater Toronto Area, price growth in 2016 is forecast to be strongest in Ontario (+2.5 per cent) and Alberta (+2.4 per cent).

Gains of around two per cent are forecast for British Columbia and Manitoba, and around one per cent for Saskatchewan and Quebec. Average home price in the Atlantic region is forecast to hold steady in 2016.

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About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Ottawa, ON, January 15, 2015- According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity was down on a month-over-month basis in December 2014.

Highlights:

• National home sales fell 5.8% from November to December.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 7.9% above December 2013 levels.
• The number of newly listed homes rose 1.1% from November to December.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.4% year-over-year in December.
• The national average sale price rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in December.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations fell 5.8 per cent in December 2014 compared to November and remained above year-ago levels.

December sales were down from the previous month in almost two-thirds of all local housing markets, led by declines of about 25 per cent in both Calgary and Edmonton. Activity also slipped by about five per cent in the Greater Toronto Area.

“Home sales activity remained above year-ago levels in most local housing markets,” said CREA President Beth Crosbie. “Sales were also stronger in December than they were the previous month in about one-third of all local markets in Canada. This underscores the fact that all real estate is local. Nobody knows this better than your local REALTOR®, who remains your best source for information about how the housing market is shaping up where you currently live or might like to in the future.”

“December sales were down from the previous month in a number of Canada’s largest and most active housing markets, indicating a broadly based cooling off for Canadian home sales as 2014 came to an end,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Even so, sales remain above year-ago levels in many of the same markets.”

“Given the uncertain outlook for oil prices, it’s no surprise consumer confidence in Alberta softened and moved some home buyers to the sidelines,” said Klump. “With regards to slower activity in Calgary and Edmonton, sales in these two markets had been running strong all year before they returned to levels that are entirely average for the month of December.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in December stood 7.9 per cent above levels reported in the same month in 2013. Sales for the month were up from year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the Greater Toronto Area, and Montreal.

Some 481,162 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations on an actual (not seasonally adjusted) basis in 2014 — the highest annual level in seven years. Annual sales activity in 2014 was up 5.1 per cent from the previous year and stood 2.6 per cent above the 10-year annual average.

The number of newly listed homes rose 1.1 per cent in December compared to November. Led by Calgary, Regina and Ottawa, new supply was up in just over half of all local markets.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 51.8 per cent in December, down from the mid-55 per cent range in the previous four months.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was within this range in just over two-thirds of all local markets in November. More than half of the British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario markets that had been in seller’s market territory in November returned to balanced market territory in December. This list included Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and the Greater Toronto Area.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 6.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of December 2014, up from 5.8 months in November. Together with the softer reading for the sales-to-new listings ratio, this suggests that the Canadian housing market has become more balanced.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.38 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December. Monthly price gains held steady between five and five-and-a-half per cent throughout 2014.

In December, year-over-year price growth decelerated compared to November for townhouse/row units but accelerated for other types of homes tracked by the index. Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.98 per cent), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+5.31 per cent) and one-storey single family homes (+4.51 per cent). Price growth remained comparatively more modest for apartment units (+3.51 per cent).

Price gains varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months,

Calgary (+8.80 per cent), Greater Toronto (+7.89 per cent), and Greater Vancouver (+5.82 per cent) continued to post the biggest year-over-year increases. By contrast, prices in Regina declined by 3.48 per cent.

In other markets from West to East, prices were up between 2.2 and 2.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Vancouver Island, and by less than one per cent in Saskatoon, Ottawa, Greater Montreal, and Greater Moncton.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2014 was $405,233, representing an increase of 3.8 per cent year-over-year and its smallest increase since May 2013.

The national average home price remains skewed by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $319,481 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to 1.9 per cent.

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

The Bank of Canada announced on October 22nd, 2014 that it was holding its trend-setting overnight lending rate at 1 per cent.

Its most recent rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report suggest a number of reasons why interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon:

1) Recovery in exports not ready to stand on own legs. Recent growth in the U.S. has led to a weaker Canada–U.S. currency exchange rate. That is good news for Canadian exports to the U.S. , our largest trading partner. The Bank still expects that the engine for Canadian economic growth will switch from consumer spending to exports. A hike in its trend-setting interest rate would put that in jeopardy, so making that switch depends in part on the Canadian dollar remaining at its weakened level.

2) Business investment remains weak. Stronger investment is the other engine for Canadian economic growth that the Bank expects to take over from consumer spending. Stronger business investment continues to rely on — and will likely lag — a sustained improvement in exports. Stronger exports and investment both require that interest rates remain low.

3) Inflation is on target. The Bank said it views overall inflation as evolving in line with the Bank’s expectations. The Bank also said, “underlying inflationary pressures are muted”. That means it thinks its trend-setting policy interest rate is right where it needs to be. That makes raising or lowering it is unnecessary. Inflation remains close to the Bank’s 2 per cent target.

4) Global uncertainty. The Bank noted that global economic growth was weaker than it anticipated in its July Monetary Policy Report, and is facing headwinds. It also recognized a “significant correction in global financial markets”. European economic growth was revised down significantly over the forecast horizon. The recent decline in oil prices also introduces uncertainty for investment in Canada’s energy sector.

5) Canadian economic growth will be running below capacity for longer. The Bank pushed back the date as to when it expects the economy to return to full capacity. It previously expected it to happen “around mid-2016”. Now it expects it will take until “the second half of 2016”.

As of October 22nd, 2014, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.79 per cent, unchanged from the previous Bank rate announcement in September and down 0.55 percentage points from one year ago. The next interest rate announcement will be on December 3rd, 2014.

The next update to the Monetary Policy Report will be on January 21st, 2015.

(CREA 10/22/2014)

Ottawa, ON, October 15, 2014 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity in September 2014 was down from the previous month.

Highlights:

• National home sales fell 1.4% from August to September.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 10.6% above September 2013 levels.
• The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.6% from August to September.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.3% year-over-year in September.
• The national average sale price rose 5.9% on a year-over-year basis in September.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate

Boards and Associations fell by 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in September 2014, marking the first monthly decline since January of this year.

Activity was down in about 60 per cent of all local housing markets in September, led by monthly declines in Calgary, Edmonton, Central Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, London & St. Thomas, Windsor-Essex, and Ottawa. Home sales rose on a month-over-month basis in Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island, the Okanagan region, Mississauga, Durham and York regions of the Greater Toronto Area, Sherbrooke, and the Northern region of Nova Scotia.

“Affordably priced single family homes are in short supply in some of Canada’s hottest housing markets, which contributed to the monthly decline in national sales activity in September,” said CREA President Beth Crosbie. “That said, there are other markets with ample supply but sellers there are holding firm on price. There is a lot of variation in housing market trends depending on the type of housing, neighbourhood and price segment. All real estate is local and your REALTOR® is your best source for information about how the housing market is shaping up where you currently live or might like to in the future.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in September stood 10.6 per cent above levels reported in the same month last year. September sales were up from year-ago levels in about 80 per cent of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan region, Calgary, Greater Toronto and Montreal. The increase reflects activity in September 2013 that was handicapped by the occurrence of five Sundays, since that day is the lowest volume trading day for home sales.

Sales activity for the year-to-date in September was five per cent above where it stood in the first nine months of 2013, and remains broadly in line (+1.6 per cent) with the 10-year average for the period.

The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.6 per cent in September compared to August. New supply was down in just over half of all local markets, led by Calgary, Edmonton, Greater Toronto, Kingston and Ottawa.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 55.7 per cent in September. With sales and new listings having fallen in tandem, it was little changed from its reading of 55.6 per cent the previous month. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is usually described as a balanced market.

Just over half of all local markets posted a sales-to-new listings ratio in this range in September. Two-thirds of the remainder posted readings above the 60 per cent threshold that marks the border between balanced and seller’s market territory, almost all of which are located in British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of September 2014, up slightly from 5.8 months in August and slightly below the 6.0 months reported in May, June and July.

Both the sales-to-new listings ratio and the number of months of inventory remain well within balanced market territory while pointing to a national market that has tightened since the beginning of the year.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is. Greater Moncton joins the MLS® HPI this month, bringing the total number of markets covered by the index to 11, representing more than half of sales activity across Canada.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.28 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September. Price growth has been steady at about five to five-and-a-half per cent since the beginning of the year.

Year-over-year price growth accelerated slightly for two-storey single family homes and slowed further for apartment units. Price gains for one-storey single family homes and townhouse/row units were little changed compared to August.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.52 per cent), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+5.51 per cent) and one-storey single family homes (+5.07 per cent). Price growth for apartment units remains comparatively more modest (+3.05 per cent).

Price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months, the biggest gains were posted by Calgary (+10.11 per cent), Greater Toronto (+7.82 per cent), and Greater Vancouver (+5.26 per cent). Price gains were fairly flat elsewhere, with only Vancouver Island having posted year-over-year gains greater than consumer price inflation.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in September 2014 was $408,795, up 5.9 per cent from the same month last year.

The national average price continues to be skewed upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $325,406 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to 4.5 per cent.

“Sales activity and prices in the third quarter were up compared to the second quarter, although momentum going into the fourth quarter is showing tentative signs of waning,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The continuation of extraordinarily low mortgage rates has been and will continue to be the key support for home sales activity amid continuing price increases in some of Canada’s most active and expensive urban centres.”

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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 111,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.